You are currently viewing “But We’ve Never Flooded Before.” Why Missouri’s Changing Flash Flood Risk Deserves a Second Look

For many Missouri homeowners, flood risk has always seemed fairly easy to identify. We know the rivers and creeks that rise, the roads that tend to go under after prolonged rain, and the low-lying fields and neighborhoods that have historically dealt with high water. If a home has never been among them, particularly if it sits outside a designated high-risk flood area, flood insurance may never have seemed like something worth considering.

After repeated episodes of extremely heavy rainfall across Missouri, however, including flash flooding in communities where residents may not traditionally think of themselves as living in a flood-prone area, there is a reasonable question more homeowners are beginning to ask: Could my property be at risk even if it has never flooded before?

The answer isn’t automatically yes, but it isn’t automatically no, either. Flood risk is more complicated than a line on a map, and several of the factors affecting that risk are changing.

Missouri Is Seeing More Extreme Rainfall

Heavy rain and flooding are certainly nothing new in Missouri. Our location, extensive river systems, and weather patterns have made flooding part of the state’s history for generations. What has changed is the intensity of some of that rainfall.

According to NOAA’s Missouri State Climate Summary, the state has experienced an increase in extreme precipitation events. Missouri’s current State Hazard Mitigation Plan provides additional context, noting that rainfall during the four wettest days of the year has increased by approximately 35 percent over the last half century, while the amount of water flowing in most streams during the worst flood of the year has increased by more than 20 percent. The state’s mitigation plan also acknowledges what that could mean going forward: if increases in precipitation intensity continue, the frequency of flooding in Missouri is likely to increase.

None of this means that every heavy rain will cause a flood or that every Missouri property is suddenly at significant risk. It does mean that some storms are capable of putting a tremendous amount of water on the ground in a relatively short period of time. In a flash-flood event, how quickly rain falls can be every bit as important as the total amount of rain received.

What Happens After the Rain Hits the Ground?

Rainfall itself is only part of the equation. What happens to the water after it reaches the ground can make an enormous difference, particularly in communities that have experienced substantial development.

When undeveloped ground becomes a subdivision, shopping area, parking lot, roadway, or commercial development, some of the soil and vegetation that previously absorbed rainfall is replaced by rooftops, pavement, sidewalks, driveways, and other hard surfaces. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency refers to these as impervious surfaces. Because water cannot readily soak through them, a greater portion of rainfall can become surface runoff.

Development does not automatically create a flooding problem. Modern projects may include detention basins, drainage systems, grading requirements, retention areas, and other measures specifically designed to manage stormwater. Development does, however, change how water moves across the landscape. EPA research has shown that urbanization can increase both the amount and speed of stormwater runoff, while a U.S. Geological Survey study specifically examining urban basins in Missouri found the percentage of impervious surface within a drainage area to be a statistically significant factor when estimating flood frequency.

For homeowners, the important point is not that development is inherently harmful. It is that the landscape surrounding a property does not remain static. As communities grow, the way water reaches creeks, drainage channels, culverts, low areas, and neighboring properties can change as well.

The Infrastructure Beneath Our Feet Matters, Too

The changing landscape above ground is only one part of the stormwater system. Missouri communities also depend upon an extensive network of culverts, storm drains, sewer systems, drainage channels, and other infrastructure to move water away from homes, businesses, and roadways. Some of that infrastructure has been in place for decades and was designed around the size, development patterns, and expected water volumes of the communities that existed when it was installed.

The American Society of Civil Engineers has previously identified aging wastewater and stormwater infrastructure as a significant issue in Missouri, noting that the average age of this infrastructure in both larger municipalities and small towns was approaching the end of its expected life. Age alone does not mean a storm drain or culvert will fail, but every drainage system has limitations involving capacity, condition, maintenance, and design.

Missouri’s State Hazard Mitigation Plan recognizes this issue as communities prepare for the future. Among its recommendations is consideration of potentially larger future water volumes when sizing culverts and drainage ways during stormwater system improvements and installations.

Taken together, these factors help explain why conversations about flash flooding are becoming more relevant even outside places with a long history of flood losses. More intense rainfall can fall over communities containing more pavement, rooftops, and other impervious surfaces, sending runoff toward drainage systems that may have been designed years or decades earlier for a different landscape and different demands. That is not a prediction that flooding will occur. It is a reason to reconsider some long-held assumptions about where it can occur.

Traditional Flood Risks Have Not Gone Away

There are, of course, Missouri properties where flood exposure has long been easier to recognize. Homes near rivers and larger streams are obvious examples, as are properties within known floodplains, bottomlands, low-lying areas, and locations with a documented history of flooding. Those risks remain very real.

Flash flooding introduces another layer because it can involve much smaller waterways and drainage systems. A creek that normally carries only a trickle of water can behave very differently when several inches of rain fall upstream in a short period. Low points within neighborhoods can collect runoff, culverts can temporarily become overwhelmed, and drainage channels can exceed their capacity. Development farther uphill or upstream can also influence how quickly stormwater reaches another location.

This makes properties near small creeks, drainage channels, culverts, subdivision low points, and areas experiencing significant surrounding development worth a second look, even when those properties have no previous history of flooding.

What If Your Home Isn’t in a High-Risk Flood Zone?

FEMA flood maps are important tools for understanding flood exposure, particularly when identifying areas with a statistically greater likelihood of flooding. They should not, however, be interpreted to mean that properties outside those higher-risk areas cannot experience a flood.

Flood maps evaluate particular flood hazards using available information about waterways, elevation, topography, historical conditions, modeling, and other factors. Communities and drainage patterns can also change over time. In practical terms, a flood map identifies known levels of flood risk; it does not create a boundary beyond which water cannot travel.

For someone who has lived in the same home for many years without experiencing a flood, that distinction may be particularly important. A history without flooding is certainly useful information when evaluating a property’s risk, but it is not the only information worth considering, especially when the surrounding landscape has changed.

Wouldn’t Homeowners Insurance Cover the Damage?

This is one of the most important insurance distinctions for homeowners to understand. In general, a standard homeowners insurance policy does not cover damage caused by flooding. The Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance advises consumers to review their policies carefully for flood and water-damage exclusions rather than assuming all forms of water damage are treated the same way.

Flood coverage normally requires a separate flood insurance policy. The National Flood Insurance Program, commonly known as the NFIP, is administered by FEMA and provides flood insurance for eligible property owners, renters, and businesses in participating communities. Flood insurance may also be available through private insurance companies, so the appropriate option can depend upon the property, available coverage, and the needs of the policyholder.

There is also an important timing consideration. NFIP policies typically have a 30-day waiting period before coverage becomes effective, although certain exceptions apply. That makes flood insurance something to investigate as part of ordinary insurance planning rather than something intended to be purchased when a major storm is already in the forecast.

Understanding What Flood Insurance Covers

For homeowners, NFIP coverage is generally divided into building coverage and contents coverage. Building coverage can include covered flood damage to the structure and foundation, electrical and plumbing systems, furnaces and water heaters, central air-conditioning systems, permanently installed cabinets, certain flooring, and other permanently installed components of the home. Residential NFIP building coverage is currently available up to $250,000.

Contents coverage is separate and can provide protection for covered personal property including furniture, clothing, electronics, washers and dryers, curtains, certain portable appliances, and other belongings. Residential contents coverage is currently available up to $100,000. Building and contents coverage have separate deductibles, and purchasing building coverage should not be assumed to mean that all personal belongings are automatically insured as well.

Understanding those distinctions before purchasing a policy is important because flood insurance also contains limitations and exclusions. A standard NFIP policy generally does not cover temporary housing or additional living expenses while a flooded home is being repaired. Vehicles are not covered under the flood policy, and property outside the insured building, including items such as landscaping, decks, patios, fences, and swimming pools, is generally excluded.

Basements deserve particular attention. NFIP coverage below ground level is limited. Certain essential building equipment may qualify for coverage, including furnaces, water heaters, electrical components, central air-conditioning equipment, and sump pumps when applicable policy requirements are met. Finished basement improvements and many personal belongings kept in a basement, however, may not be covered in the way a homeowner expects. For someone with a finished lower level, home office, family room, or significant personal property stored downstairs, those limitations are worth understanding in detail.

A Different Kind of Flood Conversation

So, does every Missouri homeowner suddenly need flood insurance? That is not a conclusion that can responsibly be drawn from statewide statistics or a few seasons of severe weather. Individual properties are different, and meaningful risk assessment should consider location, elevation, nearby waterways and drainage areas, surrounding development, previous flooding, available coverage, and the homeowner’s own financial circumstances and comfort with risk.

What has changed is the value of asking the question.

A homeowner who has never considered flood exposure may want to pay closer attention to what happens around the property during unusually heavy rain. Where does runoff travel? Are there creeks, drainage ditches, culverts, storm drains, or low areas nearby? Has substantial development occurred uphill or upstream? Have roads or neighboring properties experienced drainage problems during recent storms? Perhaps most importantly, do you know how your existing insurance would respond if rising surface water entered your home?

These are not questions intended to create alarm. They are the same kinds of practical questions homeowners routinely ask about roofs, electrical systems, storm damage, liability, or any other risk that can change as a home and its surroundings change.

Missouri has always lived with water. Rivers, creeks, thunderstorms, and periods of heavy rainfall are part of our landscape. What deserves renewed attention is the combination of increasingly intense precipitation, growing communities, changing surfaces and drainage patterns, and infrastructure being asked to manage those changes. For some homeowners, the answer after reviewing those factors may be that their current protection remains appropriate. For others, it may uncover a gap they simply had never considered.

Either way, the goal is not to be afraid of the next rainstorm. It is to know what your insurance covers before you ever have reason to find out the hard way.

If you have questions about flood coverage, exclusions in your current homeowners policy, or whether a separate flood policy is worth considering for your property, start with a reputable insurance agent who can help you look at your individual circumstances rather than make a decision based on a general assumption or a flood-zone designation alone.

At LCM Insurance Agency Inc., our agents are available to help Missouri homeowners understand their existing coverage, discuss flood insurance options, and determine what questions should be asked for their particular property. We proudly serve families, farms, and businesses throughout Lincoln County, Warren County, Montgomery County, Pike County, and surrounding Missouri communities.

Through all the seasons and all the reasons you need us.

Sources and Further Reading

  • Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023–2028
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Missouri State Climate Summary
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Urbanization: Stormwater Runoff
  • U.S. Geological Survey, Estimation of the Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Urban Basins in Missouri
  • Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance, consumer guidance regarding homeowners and flood insurance
  • Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Flood Insurance Program, consumer guidance regarding flood insurance coverage, limitations, and waiting periods
  • American Society of Civil Engineers, Missouri Infrastructure Report Card